Time to Evaluate the Possibility of a Change of Trend

Quite a number of shrewd American investors have been buying foreign stock these last couple of years, and made good returns in the process. It was a good decision, especially since the dollar started to fall and fall.

Of course, nothing lasts forever, and there is a whiff in the air of a change in the attitude towards the dollar. This is not without some reason albeit, that many think it is nonsensical to consider that the dollar should begin to appreciate.

The malaise with which USA has been dogged for some time now, is starting to reach the shores of other countries, notably Europe. It was inevitable that the problems of USA would affect others. The position of interest rates, falling house prices, the lot.

These consequences might be beneficial for the dollar, and those shrewd American investors may well decide to cut back on their investments abroad, and return to their currency with a profit while they can, because a rising dollar value would cut into their profit. This may be just one reason of several, to start a reversal trend.

For one thing, the British pound in particular, has been valued too highly, and whatever injections of support it has been getting, cannot last forever. Also, the high position of the euro is not easy to live with much longer.

It is well known that many factors have pointed to dollar weakness, and there are numerous people who will think the currency must weaken again in the long run.

It would certainly be nothing new, to see things turn out in a manner contrary to the book. The foreign currency game is prone to surprises. However, there are times when surprises, when put under the microscope, are in fact events which should have been seen as very real possibilities. Those, with that little extra foresight, may well be tempted and step in early by siding with the dollar.

So, is this the moment when the gamble might pay off and the dollar appreciation start?
Everybody would like to know the definite answer to that, and the best way may be is to ask the question whether the dollar has reached the bottom.

This is the point where the gambling bit comes in. The answer is not too easy this time. The prize is certainly a big one, because if caught at the right time, the dollar might earn big money. However, if caught wrongly, how much more could it fall?

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